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Thursday
Mar312011

The Politics of Medicare

An unusually insightful article at Politico on the current Medicare debate over Provenge illustrates the problems of a government-run health care “insurance” program, and why health care costs are rising so quickly.

Provenge is a treatment for prostate cancer that costs $93,000 and prolongs life by 4 months on average.  The medicare agency (CMS) has to decide this week whether to pay for it. 

The trouble is that CMS is not in a position to weigh the pros and cons and make this decision.

When individuals make decisions like this, they do so by considering the opportunity costs.  For an individual with prostate cancer, the question would be: would I rather use this $93,000 to extend my life for 4 months, or would I use it in some other way (enjoy my remaining months, give it to my children, give it to charity, etc)?  For a private insurance company, the question would be: if we covered this treatment, what would be the effect on premiums, on the desirability of our insurance, and on profits?  In these cases, both the benefits and the costs accrue to the decision-making individual or entity, so that they could be considered together.

But in the case of this government decision, no one entity faces both benefits and costs.  If CMS decides to cover this treatment, the benefits go to those with prostate cancer while the costs are distributed among all tax payers.  If CMS doesn’t cover it, the benefits and costs are reversed.  CMS’s decision won’t bring it more customers, nor drive people away, because people have no choice anyway.

Also, because this is a government decision, the decision-makers don’t face these benefits and costs, but instead face a whole other set of political costs and benefits.  If CMS decides to cover Provenge, then the Obama administration loses its talking points about controlling health care costs.  If Medicare does not cover it, then the Obama administration will be accused of rationing

And this is the really bad news: since the Obama adminstration faces these political incentives, but not the costs and benefits of the actual treatment, this decision will likely be made on the basis of politics.  It’s not difficult to predict the most likely outcome. In politics, concentrated benefits almost always win out over dispersed costs.  Here is Dan Nather at Politico:

"In the political cost-benefit analysis, the amount of grief that CMS, and the Obama administration, could get from singling out one treatment isn’t likely to be worth the money to be saved by not covering the drug."

We’ll see what CMS decides soon, but either way, this illustrates how government insurance works.  Decisions are made on the basis of politics, and the drive is to cover everything, leading to higher costs.  

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